Summary
Xbox Game Passhas long been heralded as the best deal in gaming, and while that likely remains true, I’m growing concerned about its effect on the Xbox brand at large. By all accounts, Xbox should be firing on all cylinders; a landmark lawsuit victory against the Federal Trade Commission kept Microsoft’s historic acquisition spree alive, this year’sXbox Games Showcase was packed with announcementsto make it the best presentation at Summer Game Fest, and a new, lax exclusive strategy is beginning to make Xbox Game Studios titles more widely available. Xbox Game Pass, however, feels almost incompatible with the gaming industry.
Microsoft’s New Xbox Game Pass Tiers Are An Admission Of The Service’s Incompatibility
AAA Games Are Full Price For A Reason
From a consumer standpoint, Game Pass is almost a compulsory purchase if you own an Xbox and use it regularly. It’s simply too good a deal to pass up, especially with the expectation that every first-party Xbox exclusive will be available via Game Pass on launch day. The likely issue for Microsoft, however, is thatGame Pass' revenue alone can’t support the massive, exceedingly costly development pipelines it now manages. I won’t make any claims about being an economist, so this is largely an assumption on my part, but Game Pass being a one-stop shop for all things Xbox effectively devalues the company’s entire catalog.
Big-name, upcoming Xbox console exclusives likeGears of War: E-DayandFabledon’t actually carry their MSRP-stated $70 value when I can just get a $20 month of Game Pass Ultimate instead. For a long time, this trade-off appeared acceptable to Microsoft and its coffers the size of a world power’s GDP.Restricting day-one releases to certain Game Pass tiers, however, seems to be a reaction to what has likely turned into an unacceptable profit vacuum, especially in light of upcoming additions to the service.
Call Of Duty May No Longer Be A Money-Printing Machine On Game Pass
Devaluing A Perennial Bestseller
For the last 15 years, since 2009,Call of Dutyhas topped the United States' yearly best-selling video game charts 12 times. Every year it wasn’t number one, it was number two, and in some years (2020 and 2021), the franchise held both top spots. Making these statistics even more impressive is the fact thatCall of Dutyalways releases in each year’s twilight months – no doubt to capitalize on the industry’s holiday bump – giving each title a relatively short runway to surpass the competition.Call of Duty’s acquisition alone would have been enough to get the FTC on Microsoft’s back, but nowthe golden goose may be causing a problem.
Call of Dutybeing available day one on Game Pass jeopardizes its frankly incomprehensible success.
According toActivision, 2022’sModern Warfare 2surpassed one billion dollars in sales in just 10 days ($1,000,000,000, if the absurd number of zeroes helps get the point across).Call of Dutybeing available day one on Game Pass jeopardizes its frankly incomprehensible success. There’s no doubt it’ll turn a profit – death, taxes, andCall of Dutybeing a bestseller are life’s three great inevitabilities – but how much of a profit could Xbox turn if it weren’t obligated to put theupcomingCall of Duty: Black Ops 6on the service?
Call of Duty 2,3,4, andWorld at Warwere all top-10 bestsellers in their respective years prior to 2009. The three games to outsellCall of Dutysince 2009 areGrand Theft Auto 5,Red Dead Redemption 2, andHogwarts Legacy.
Game Pass Can’t Sustain Xbox Alone
Microsoft’s Gaming Brand Needs Traditional Sales
To me, it feels like Xbox and Game Pass are reaching an impasse. The subscription has been the brand’s flagship service for years, but is now reaching its limit, andMicrosoft is struggling to find a route back to success. In a way, it’s the same tale Xbox has reluctantly been telling since the beginning of the Xbox One generation – well-meaning ideas lead to unintended consequences, all the while the brand struggles to release exclusives which compel players to choose Xbox over the competition.
There’s virtually no incentive aside from holding onto my precious Gamerscore to stick with Microsoft’s hardware.
With Xbox Series X/S sales falling far behind those of the PlayStation 5, and a sparse slate of exclusives for the generation so far, Xbox is turning to a variety of strategies that almost reek of desperation, including the Game Pass price hike. Most interestingly, Xbox appears to be moving away from the traditional concept of console-exclusive games. I should make it absolutely clear thatthis is a good direction for consumers– console-exclusive games are largely a marketing ploy to win your loyalty to the brand; certain games draw you into an ecosystem where you become a consistent source of revenue. For Xbox itself, fewer exclusives is more complicated.
Xbox Game Pass Suddenly Doesn’t Feel Like The Best Deal In Gaming Anymore
While Xbox Game Pass seems like a massive success, recent industry developments may show that Microsoft is shifting away from the service.
Yes, sellingStarfieldon PlayStation would open up a new revenue stream (one that Bethesda enjoyed prior to it being acquired), butit weakens the ecosystem Xbox has been trying so hard to cultivate. Xbox may as well transition to becoming a more traditional games publisher, without proprietary hardware. Xbox has remained adamant that it’s staying in the console business, but there’s virtually no incentive aside from holding onto my precious Gamerscore to stick with Microsoft’s hardware if Microsoft’s games are going to be available on other platforms, which still have exclusives of their own.
I Don’t Want Xbox To Die
The Industry Needs Competition
Maybe I’m foolishly nostalgic for the so-called Big Three that have dominated the industry for as long as I’ve been keenly interested in it, but I genuinely hope Xbox’s tepid performance so far in this console generation is merely part of a downturn prior to future success.For so long, it felt like games were the issue–Halohasn’t been the same under 343 Industries' stewardship;Gears of Wardoesn’t feel like a console-seller the way its original trilogy was for the Xbox 360;Forza’s regular releases are starting to feel like the unenthusiastic iterations of yearly games likeMaddenor2K.
Game Pass won’t kill Xbox immediately, it will be a slow death.
But if a healthy injection ofCall of Duty,Diablo,World of Warcraft, Bethesda’s beloved RPGs, and so much more isn’t enough to not just right the ship, but turn it all the way around, maybe there isn’t really much hope. Ultimately, Microsoft at large is probably rather indifferent – if Xbox hardware goes by the wayside, more horrid cost-cutting measures can be taken, and it still has a potentially lucrative games publishing business. After the recent closings of Tango Gameworks and Arkane Austin, however, I don’t have much confidence Xbox can succeed solely in that arena either.
I’m not one to lament the failures of multinational corporations (only the ramifications which unfairly fall on the workers), but fewer headliners is bad for competition, and subsequently innovation, in the industry. Xbox has a rich brand identity distinct from PlayStation and Nintendo, and Microsoft has the resources to deliver genuinely compelling products. Unfortunately, its most compelling in the gaming sphere is Game Pass, and it seems to be actively harming Xbox’s future prospects.Game Passwon’t kill Xbox immediately, it will be a slow death.
Xbox Series X/S
Xbox Series X and Xbox Series S are two consoles Microsoft released in November 2020. Like most Xbox models, the Xbox Series X/S was the main competitor to the PlayStation 5. The consoles were the successors to Microsoft’s Xbox One line. While the PS5 and Xbox Series X are comparable interns of graphics, the Xbox Series S provides less powerful graphics around 1080p-1440p and does not contain a disc drive.
